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Why get involved in Forex?/B>

A long time ago when I held the post of portfolio manager in a large multinational company, during a meeting with some bankers, a very experienced one asked me, "Why do you need our foreign exchange facilities, for hedging or for speculation?" Without thinking twice I asked him to draw the line between the two. After all these years I am not surprised that he was not able to give a straight forward answer.

People generally believe that currency exchange rates are something totally irrelevant to their daily affairs. A dollar is always a dollar they say. Funny enough, the very same people are very sensitive to words like inflation rate, interest rates, etc. and almost all of them keep a portion of their money in bonds and stocks in order to preserve the value of their portfolio--a different mix of cash, treasuries and securities in an attempt to hedge against economic fluctuations. Not a single one of them will admit speculating in favor of or against financial changes. All of them will comfort themselves by considering their buys and sells as decent hedging against undue risk.

Perhaps a few decades back the foreign exchange market was a field of interest for only a limited number of population groups. On the eve of the 21th century, however, it is very naive to ignore currency rate changes, and this is true even for the single small investor. If anybody does care about the value of his/her money, what a dollar buys today is not what a dollar will buy tomorrow. International trade is so pervasive that

quite a lot of goods and services that consumers buy originate in a third country. And the price of thousands of these items depends on rate variations in these markets. Moreover, the market moves really fast. Even if one does not intend to invest abroad, he cannot avoid buying foreign made items. After all, everybody has heard about the infamous U.S. trade deficit. It is true that for some particular groups, like international fund managers, exporters importers, etc., fluctuations of currency rates are much more sensitive. However, as we saw above, the broad changes cannot be ignored by the rest of the people. The old mathematic games theory saying that over a very long period the number of ups will be equal to the number of downs, is just not realistic. An individual's lifetime is limited and rather well defined. Thus, during this limited time horizon the ups can dramatically outweigh the downs or vise versa. Therefore, it is not a matter of direction but a matter of timing. Indeed, timing seems to be the major element in all aspects of life. Hence, one has to hedge at least against untimely variations. Many more arguments can be offered to highlight the need of getting somehow involved in the foreign exchange market. I have purposely kept this article short and simplistic, as it is addressed to the small individual investor. He or she must keep a broad view of what portfolio protection is all about. Following the major trends is an act of wisdom. Trying to get rich from short term arbitrage in any financial instrument, that,yes, I call speculation.

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